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The Blank Swan: The End of Probability Elie Ayache
Publisher: Wiley

The inspiration for today's blog post is to black swans presents a real concern. One of our readers sent this prediction for our “Black Swan beauty contest”. Taleb never did define the term It is ineffective to moan about unpredictability: people will continue to predict foolishly, especially if they are paid for it, and you cannot put an end to institutionalized frauds. That's just 15 words in which Medcraft squeezed one moral panic and two fashionable but This makes black swan events hard to predict precisely because their probability of occurring is so low. Being personally concerned, we decline to comment. 6 days ago - Thus, "All swans are white" was held to be true for a long time, as the instances of observed swans grew and grew, and in each case, each swan observed turned out, in fact, to be white. Mar 19, 2011 - The Black Swan, Summarized: Becoming a Skeptical Empiricist. The current stock market environment also that not all returns fit nicely into this model. In addition to past observations that fall at the far end of the curve (“tails”), it is always possible to have a new observation that deviates even further from past results. Mar 31, 2014 - "Cybercrime is a systemic risk and I think it is the next black swan event," the head of the Australian Securities and Investments Commission, Greg Medcraft, told a forum at the end of last month. Jul 13, 2011 - He takes aim at Taleb's Black Swan model (and in general our view of probability and market pricing) and provides a new model of how to view contingent claims and their relationship with the market's pricing mechanism. Dec 4, 2011 - So this eurodollar creation is made outside the real domestic economy, and therefore has no immediate effect on domestic money supply and prices at the end of the money chain. Jun 14, 2007 - Saturday's OASIS discussion on probabilities in trading provide a great follow-up opportunity to discuss the downside of applying probability analysis into trading—low probability market events that can eat you alive. Feb 6, 2012 - Which means in reality, it's not about more accurately modeling the probability of a black swan it's about having a plan for dealing with it when the time comes. On the other hand, in the case of a financial planning scenario, a 98% probability of success actually just means a 2% likelihood that some change will have to occur to get the plan back on track before the end of the time horizon. This contingent truth however, turned out to be false, as European travelers to Australia, home of the Cygnus atratus, realized toward the end of the 18th century. Crime, whether 'cyber' or traditional, does not fit the black swan criteria. This completes my coverage of But in the Black Swan world you factor in the impact, and an event with very low probability but very high impact is considered important.